Is the 4-Year Crypto Cycle Becoming Obsolete?

Is the 4-Year Crypto Cycle Becoming Obsolete? AllinCrypto November 25, 2025

Crypto markets have largely followed a predictable rhythm of a four-year cycle tied closely to Bitcoin’s halving event.

Each halving reduces Bitcoin’s block rewards, constricting BTC supply issuance and triggering a subsequent bull run, followed by a sharp correction and consolidation until the next time.

Since late 2024, institutional investments into crypto via ETFs and digital asset products, treasuries, and funds have entered the multi-billions. The structure of the crypto market is changing, and the 4-year cycle could be disrupted.

The Rise of Institutional Investments in BTC and Crypto

With institutional money now flowing into digital assets through spot ETFs, and with enterprises adopting utility-focused networks such as Ethereum, Hedera (HBAR), XLM, and XRP, the question of a disrupted 4-year cycle hangs over investors.

• Read More: Why Has the Crypto Market Been Falling and When Will It Go Up?

As 2025 comes to a close, Bitcoin has fallen sharply from all-time highs of $120k to lows of $85k, but it’s slowly, gradually recovering, alongside the rest of the crypto market, as new altcoin ETFs hit Nasdaq.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, over a hundred altcoin ETFs are due to be launched over the next 6 months heading into 2026. Inflows into digital assets, including Bitcoin reach the billions week after week, including outflows.

Liquidity and demand for altcoins like Ripple’s XRP, Hedera, and Ethereum prove that institutional capital is causing an impact on how the markets have been moving, with many pointing out how institutions could be replacing retail.

The biggest shift challenging the old usual cycle is the scale and behavior of institutional investors. Unlike retail traders, institutions don’t typically follow hype-driven patterns and are more long-term oriented.

• Read More: When Is The Next Crypto Bear Market?

Their investment strategies center on long-term positioning, balanced risk exposure, and diversified portfolios, including leveraged products.

The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has opened the door for a flood of funds that accumulate gradually, often independent of market sentiments, and they do so in massive volume whenever there’s a good opportunity.

This steady inflow from institutional investors can create a new baseline of demand that absorbs volatility rather than making things worse. If institutions are continuously allocating to Bitcoin and other large-cap assets, market drawdowns could become shorter and less dramatic.

Another structural change challenging the cycle comes from utility-driven altcoins. Ethereum’s smart-contract infrastructure is now deeply embedded in tokenization, stablecoins, and decentralized finance.

Hedera is powering enterprise-grade settlement systems, real-time payments, asset tokenization, and sustainability reporting. XRP continues to position itself as a bridge asset for liquidity and international remittances.

These networks offer real-world use cases outside of speculation, becoming components of real financial infrastructures at banks and payment firms. As banks, corporations, fintechs, and governments integrate DLTs, including Swift, demand for tokens can become tied to activity instead of speculative hype.

Institutions Are Replacing Retail and Welcoming Digital Asset Treasuries for Crypto

Digital asset treasuries may also be contributing to a more stable crypto market that could steer Bitcoin away from typical 4-year cycles.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, one of the most successful digital asset treasuries, has paved the way for other DATs, including Metaplanet in Japan, Tom Lee’s Fundstrat Ethereum treasury, and Evernorth, a treasury for XRP.

There is also a Zcash treasury from the Winklevoss twins, aiming to take advantage of privacy cryptocurrency tokens.

Treasuries bet on the long-term potential of crypto assets, hoarding millions worth of tokens and allowing investors to contribute to the treasury with their own investments to earn yields.

Although DATs aren’t ETFs, they allow firms to maintain a large supply of tokens, removing them from the market for trading. Like ETFs, DATs also have an effect on crypto market movements.

The four-year cycle may not disappear overnight, but its dominance may be weakening with increased institutional interest, potentially leading to BTC following the structure of the S&P500 or making a new path altogether.

With institutional capital providing structural demand and enterprise adoption creating real economic use cases, crypto is entering a new phase, largely controlled and influenced by companies.

The post Is the 4-Year Crypto Cycle Becoming Obsolete? first appeared on AllinCrypto.