Hedera Hashgraph HBAR Breakout Analysis: Is HBAR Ready for a Major Rally? AllinCrypto May 9, 2025
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) has broken out of a bullish falling wedge pattern, signaling the end of a multi-month pullback. Price targets indicate a push toward $0.27 in the short term and up to $0.40–$0.45 in the medium term.
At the same time, the HBAR Foundation has also been going through its own new growth phase, bringing along brand-new leadership and development, while continuing to boost adoption in the DeFi, AI, and Tokenization sectors, AI, and tokenization. HBAR also appears to be holding up well against Bitcoin with its trading performance, and there are still nine council positions left in the Hedera ecosystem that have not yet been filled, meaning there are nine more notable institutional partnerships to announce. When considering both the technical and fundamental angles, HBAR does seem to have upside.
In this article, you are going to learn:
- What is taking place with HBAR price patterns
- Why Hedera Foundation’s newly found announcement is important
- Key technical levels to watch closely
- How HBAR has performed against Bitcoin
- What this signals for crypto investors in 2025 and beyond
Whether you are new to HBAR or a long-time HBAR holder, this guide was built for clarity and confidence!
HBAR Price Action: Falling Wedge Breakout and Retest
Key Technical Pattern: Falling Wedge
HBAR recently broke out of a falling wedge one of the most popular technical setups, and typically an indication of a bullish reversal.
This pattern produced an 800% move in HBAR’s price last time, and now there is a similar pattern that has formed, although on the larger time frame it is clear the pull back is coming to end.
What We are Seeing at Present
- HBAR has broken out of the falling wedge
- HBAR is in a retest
- The short term target is $0.27
- Medium term targets are between the $0.40 and $0.45 range.
| Structure | Description | HBAR Status |
|---|---|---|
| Falling Wedge | Compression pattern before breakout | Confirmed breakout |
| Retest | Price returns to breakout level | Currently happening |
| Continuation | Price moves higher post-retest | Expected next |
Recognizing the Four Market Phases!
In order to determine where HBAR is with respect to the market cycle, it is beneficial to review the four basic phases of price movement:
- Accumulation – Smart investors buy at low prices
- Uptrend – Price increases as more buyers come in
- Distribution – Early buyers are selling at high prices
- Downtrend – Price corrects or reverses
From the looks of this model HBAR has exited the accumulation phase and is moving into the uptrend phase. This is evident from the following points:
- Volume increased during the breakout
- Double bottom price structure
- Historical price action shows the same behavior
There are technical signals that add credibility to a sustained increase in price.
Big News from the HBAR Foundation
From a fundamentals perspective, the HBAR Foundation announced a holistic growth strategy.
Highlights
- New Leadership Mance Harmon (former co-founder of Hedera) is now Chairman.
- Complete rebrand and reimagination of the Foundation’s visual and strategic identity.
- Bring on major new Web2 and Web3 builders.
Strategic Goals
- Grow DeFi, AI and asset tokenization.
- Grow total value locked (TVL) on Hedera.
- Drive the adoption of stablecoins and DeFi tools.
- Be the on-ramp for institutional capital into Hedera’s on-chain economy.
This is a dramatic pivot from a very technocratic platform to a magnet for real-world adoption.
HBAR vs. Bitcoin: Robust Technical Setup
The HBAR/BTC pair has a very similar falling wedge breakout with a clear retest ongoing.
This structure is the same as that of Ethereum Classic in 2019, when it saw a strong price move higher. Thus, this suggests HBAR could outperform Bitcoin to the upside on a relative basis.
Technical breakouts against Bitcoin often provide early signals of altcoin strength.
HBAR Dominance: Increasing Market Share
HBAR dominance or HBAR’s market cap relative to pieces of the rest of crypto is starting to rise as well.
This indicates:
- More capital is going into HBAR
- Investor confidence is increasing
- HBAR might be entering into a leadership phase among altcoins
Dominance breakouts often occur before significant market movements.
What’s Next for the Hedera Council?
The Hedera Council oversee the direction of the Hedera network and has 30 out of 39 potential seats filled. There are nine open seats remaining for more well-known institutions to fill. Each new member could potentially elevate the Hedera ecosystem by increasing:
- Credibility
- Ecosystem expansion
- Greater adoption
We are already hearing rumors of new council members in the making, but have no official announcements yet.
What it Means for Builders and Investor?
Whether you are a trader or a long-term holder, this is what the current setup implies:
For Traders:
- First target short-term price: $0.27
- Medium-term price range: $0.40 – $0.45
- Long-term price could make a move back towards $0.96 (up towards all-time highs).
For Long-Term Investors:
- Market structure points to upside.
- Fundamental changes have rapidly improved.
- Network adoption and increased governance are moving stridently.
Recap: Key takeaways
- HBAR has broken a bullish pattern and is now beginning a retest.
- The volume and structure could indicate the beginning of going much further.
- The HBAR foundations new initiative to increase adoption for both developers and institutional players
- HBAR has an increasing market and strength versus Bitcoin and dominance
- There are 9 governance seats still open which indicates more upside catalysts remain.
HBAR is entering a very strong position for 2025 and beyond with technical structure and real-world momentum.
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